Earn more referrals from your primary contact

Anthony Iannarino advises stopping the prediction of sales outcomes and instead, focusing on identifying fragility. Sales leaders often build huge pipelines hoping to hit targets by volume, but this leads to disappointment.

Focus on spotting fragility in deals. Fragility is a better predictor of lost opportunities.

Signs of a fragile deal

1. Unclear motivation: The prospect doesn’t have a strong reason to change.

2. Pricing mismatch: The prospect is price-sensitive, but your product is premium.

3. Weak buy-In: Limited buy-in from key stakeholders, especially senior ones.

4. Low client effort: The prospect's actions don’t match their words.

5. Unmapped buying process: You don’t understand their decision-making process.

6. Fuzzy timeline: Only vague end-of-quarter guesses.

7. Multiple competitors: Your win probability is lower than your CRM suggests.

What to do:

• Count red flags: The more fragilities, the higher the risk.

• Fix weaknesses early: Many of these issues are fixable with early intervention.

Dig deep to put your forecast on solid ground

Salman Mohiuddin shares a lesson learned the hard way: missing the details of a prospect's process for onboarding new vendors can derail your forecast.

Here’s his advice:

1. Understand the onboarding process early

Ask about their steps for evaluating and purchasing new technology.

Example: “Could you walk me through how you typically evaluate, decide, and purchase technology? What are the steps and who’s involved?”

2. Add context to your questions

Example: “From our experience, customers in your space typically go through an Infosec review and privacy assessment process. Is that something we may need to go through? If so, could you provide insight on that process?”

3. Identify the right contacts

If your contact doesn’t know the process, find someone who does.

Example: “Is there someone on your team who has evaluated and brought on new tech who may know the process?”

Lesson learned

Don’t rush to forecast deals just because the prospect is excited. Do your due diligence to understand all steps and stakeholders involved. This ensures accurate forecasting and mitigates risk.

The problem with "probabilistic" forecasting

Most sales leaders use "probabilistic" forecasting, assigning a % close rate to each sales stage. This often leads to missing targets.

Here’s a better approach from Martin Roth:

1. Review every deal

• Go through each deal in your pipeline to assess its likelihood of closing.

2. Ensure three key elements

• Clear next steps with meetings set.

• A confirmed champion within the client’s organization.

• A time-based incentive confirmed by email.

3. Focus on real deals

• Identify deals with a clear path to closing ("commit").

• Note deals that could close with more effort ("best case").

Your priority: Work the pipeline relentlessly until you have enough deals to meet your target. Prioritize this over other tasks.